
Predicting Musculoskeletal Pain: A 20-Year Study
Despite efforts expended on research, treatment and rehabilitation, musculoskeletal problems remain a significant health problem. More than 50% of women experience at least one episode of back pain by age 18; 50% of men experience the same by age 20.
In a study designed to determine potential predictors of musculoskeletal pain in this latter population, 6,626 Swedish men were surveyed at age 18 by postal questionnaire, then again by questionnaire 20 years later. The authors of the study sought to answer three specific questions:
- Do young men with back pain have a greater risk for future problems than men without signs of early pain?
- Do specific risk factors (i.e., smoking or obesity) help predict neck pain 20 years later?
- Are there specific predictors of back pain within the work environment, even at a young age?

At the time of enlistment into the military (1979-1980), 18-year-old men completed a questionnaire and physical and psychological examinations, providing baseline data for the study. In 1999, 6,266 of the original subjects were located and completed a follow-up questionnaire.
Both questionnaires focused on back and neck pain and exposure to physical load in the work environment, with the follow-up questionnaire being more detailed than the baseline version. The follow-up questionnaire also contained a self-administered test of physical function. A significantly higher risk of frequent back/neck/shoulder problems was noted at follow-up in men who performed heavy work or who described a "great effect of back pain on everyday activities" at baseline. Specifically, early back pain causing work absence, reduced activity resulting from such pain, and heavy work load corresponded with higher risk of later back pain The authors suggest that early intervention and workplace modifications may help manage these conditions.

|